TD Bank Group Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist Derek Burleton virtually addressed business professionals and community leaders from across the G.T.A. at the City of Oshawa’s Economic Outlook Event on April 21.
Deputy Chief Economist Burleton highlighted key aspects of the global, national, and Ontario economies, as well as a local perspective on Oshawa’s economic landscape in his virtual address.
Mr. Burleton noted that the rapid economic growth we have seen nationally over the pandemic will cool, creating more sustainable growth long term. G.D.P. growth of 3% is projected by the end of 2022, bolstered by high household savings rates and a strong commodities sector. Supply chain pressures and elevated commodity prices are expected to continue into 2022 with the Russia Ukraine conflict
Mr. Burleton went on to state that we should see a rebalancing of our economy as it transitions from demand in goods to services. It is estimated that $200 billion in savings exist within Canadian households, $40 billion of which will make its way into the economy. He also forecasted that service spending is expected to increase with easing COVID-19 restrictions. This would serve as a tailwind for the Canadian economy.
The Canadian job market remains robust and strong. With immigration revving up across the country, Mr. Burleton has an optimistic long-term outlook of labour supply. While COVID-19 severity lessens, it continues to have an impact on supply chains and inflation. Inflation should ease to 4 to 5% by the end of 2022, which will continue to apply pressure to the Bank of Canada and monetary policy. While not at pre-pandemic levels, the Federal government continues to spend in order to bolster economic growth. Housing price growth has slowed and will continue to, but at this point, a major correction is not being forecasted due to continued supply constraints. Locally, Durham Region has been a prime beneficiary of the “race for space” in the G.T.A. and will likely outpace Ontario moving forward.
Oshawa Mayor Dan Carter provided additional local highlights, including a landmark $2 billion commitment from GM Canada that includes a retooling of the Oshawa Assembly plant, creating 2,600 jobs and attracting a diversified workforce, with over 50% of the assembly team made up of female workers. GM Canada’s recent investments also include a 55-acre autonomous vehicle test track and new stamping manufacturing facility, all of which position Oshawa to play a major role in a new competitive auto industry.
Mayor Carter noted new employment opportunities will continue to meet the needs of Oshawa residents as one of the fastest growing communities in Canada. With a 2.1% population growth in 2020 and 2.3% in 2021, Oshawa will continue to see further residential development in the Kedron and Columbus neighbourhoods.
Councillor Tito-Dante Marimpietri, Chair of the Development Services Committee, closed the event by also speaking to the City of Oshawa’s strong economic growth, anchored by thousands of new employment opportunities and more companies selecting the city for investment and expansion. Councillor Marimpietri noted that economic forecasts by the Conference Board of Canada project an optimistic outlook for the city at 4.7% G.D.P. growth as well as 8.5% growth in manufacturing output. Despite the impact of the global pandemic, total building permits issued in 2021 were the second highest on record in Oshawa’s history totalling over $560 million in addition to 11 new building records. He pointed out that this investment momentum has continued into 2022, as Oshawa’s year-to-date construction records have already surpassed 2021 by $50 million, setting pace for another strong year.
This was the 18th annual Economic Outlook Breakfast presented by the City’s Economic Development Services Branch with TD Bank Group.
Up-to-date information on development, statistics, news and more is available at www.oshawa.ca/business and research reports by TD Bank Group Economics are available at www.td.com/economics.
For more information on Economic Development Services, visit www.oshawa.ca/business or follow @InvestOshawa on Twitter.
For City of Oshawa updates, visit Oshawa.ca/NewsCentre to follow us on social media, subscribe to news and alerts, and have your say on Connect Oshawa.
Quotes:
“We are encouraged by Derek Burleton’s remarks with regards to Oshawa’s local economic recovery,” said Oshawa Mayor Dan Carter. “Businesses and investors across the G.T.A. are showing confidence in our economic future and our prospects for continued growth. Oshawa provides significant value with proximity to global markets, world-class research facilities and a pipeline of talent spanning over 25,000 post-secondary students. Great cities do hard things, solve big issues and create new opportunities to achieve success. This is the great City of Oshawa.”
“Mr. Burleton’s positive economic forecast for Oshawa signals the results of our strategic vision and focused work at the City,” said Councillor Tito-Dante Marimpietri, Chair of the Development Services Committee. “With great focus on building a dynamic and sustainable community for all, we welcome new business interests with excitement and an industry-leading commitment to delivering the responsive customer service needed to attract investment. As a community of choice for investors and job creating companies across the G.T.A., Oshawa’s future is bright indeed!”
“The fact that the economists have recently raised projected growth rates bodes well for an expected balanced recovery post COVID,” said Councillor Rosemary McConkey, Vice-Chair of the Development Services Committee. “However, there is the reality that inflationary pressures will be making municipal budgeting very challenging next year.”
